Predicting future winners

Customer portfolio growth isn’t always linear

A salesperson is responsible for developing their customer portfolio, which is typically expected to grow over time. In practice, however, development is uneven: some customers increase their purchasing while others stagnate or decline. Revenue changes therefore reflect not only the salesperson’s efforts but also the customer’s conditions and how their business evolves.

If you become successful in predicting the future of your customers’ business, you will be more successful in picking the winners.

For many sales professionals, time is limited. You cannot give every account the same level of energy, so choosing where to focus becomes a strategic decision. Our expert, Henrik Frohm, MD of Mercuri International Sweden, calls this ROSE (Return on Sales Effort). The same logic applies in the stock market: you cannot invest in every stock, only in those with the best potential return.

“This is simply my way of combining two things I enjoy, sales and stocks, in my work as a salesperson.”

Based on his experience as a sales consultant, many companies and salespeople prioritize accounts based on:

• Revenue today
• Strength of the relationship
• Products/services they buy today (upselling/cross-selling opportunities)
• And more

These indicators matter but do not always show future potential. A high-revenue customer today may decline, while a smaller one in a growing industry could become a major account.

If you only look at current numbers, you risk:

• Over-investing in declining customers
• Missing emerging growth accounts
• Losing your strategic position with future market leaders
• Building account plans based on outdated assumptions

Successful sales professionals act like sales strategists

“The most successful sales professionals I have met think more like business strategists.” They ask questions such as:

• Which industries are growing?
• Which companies are benefiting from global trends?
• Which customers will have increasing budgets in the future?
• Which customers may face pressure and reduce investments?

This is why combining customer segmentation with PEST analysis provides an effective approach to sales planning. It helps sales professionals move from simply managing accounts to actively shaping their future portfolio.

Why you should combine PEST with customer segmentation

This approach links internal customer insights with external market forces. Customer segmentation focuses on understanding your existing portfolio. It typically includes factors such as:

• Revenue contribution
• Growth potential
• Strategic importance
• Strength of relationship
• Share of wallet (SoW)
• Long-term partnership potential

This answers the question: Which customers are most important to us today? But it does not necessarily answer: Which customers will be most important tomorrow?

Using PEST analysis can help understand the external forces shaping your customers’ future. You are likely familiar with PEST, so this will be brief. While PESTLE exists, the focus here is on PEST.

PEST’s four dimensions

1. Political – regulations, trade policies, tariffs, government incentives
2. Economic – interest rates, investment levels, economic cycles
3. Social – sustainability expectations, demographics, changing consumer behavior
4. Technological – digitalization, automation, AI, innovation

These forces shape industries and affect customer growth. Salespeople don’t need to be economists—just connect global trends to your customer base.

For a practical approach, consider:

1. Map your customers (customer platform)
   Start with the traditional way that could be mapping out the customers by defining them as:
   – Strategic accounts
   – Growth accounts
   – Maintenance accounts
   – Smaller or emerging customers
   This gives you a clear view of where your revenue comes from today.
   
   
2. Identify macro trend affecting their industry
   Look at look at the broader trends shaping your customers’ industries. Ask yourself:
   -Are new regulations affecting the industry?
   -Are there new technologies disrupting the market?
   -Is demand increasing or decreasing, and why?
   -Are supply chains shifting geographically?

Illustrating an ongoing challenge: tariffs

“I will use one of my favourite companies, Volvo Trucks. A company like Volvo Trucks, which has production facilities in the United States, may benefit from increased tariffs on imported vehicles. Competitors relying primarily on overseas manufacturing could face higher costs, such as another Swedish truck company with production mainly in Europe and China, could face higher costs.”

For sales professionals in transportation or manufacturing, such shifts affect which customers will grow and invest. Volvo Trucks could be a future winner in the North American market.

“Based on tariffs and other factors, I ask: Which customers benefit or face pressure? Who is investing in new technologies or expanding markets? This reveals which customers may grow and which may struggle. It’s not just about the portfolio, but understanding customers and creating meaningful conversations about these changes.”

Adapting account strategy based on insights

Focus more time on growth accounts, build relationships with emerging leaders, identify new decision-makers, and align solutions with customers’ strategic goals. This makes account planning forward-looking rather than backward-looking.

This approach expands the salesperson’s role beyond managing relationships and opportunities, toward acting as an advisor who understands customers and the forces shaping their future. It enables stronger conversations about industry developments, strategic challenges, solutions, and future opportunities.

“What ‘Predicting the winners’ means for me. I want to make one thing clear: no one can predict the future with certainty. But we can form hypotheses about it.”

Henrik Frohm, MD of Mercuri International Sweden